Left: Kari Lake is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. (File photo by Mariah Temprendola/Cronkite News) Right: U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego of Phoenix is the Democratic nominee. (Photo courtesy of Ruben Gallego for Arizona)
WASHINGTON – Democrats can’t keep control of the U.S. Senate unless Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego defeats Republican hopeful Kari Lake.
That’s the assessment of the party’s chief Senate strategist, Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich.
“We don’t hold the majority if we lose Arizona,” he told Cronkite News during a roundtable with a small group of regional reporters at the offices of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which he chairs. “It’s essential.”
Lake, a former Phoenix TV news anchor who narrowly lost the gubernatorial race in 2022, is closely allied with former President Donald Trump.
She’s vying with Gallego, elected five times to the U.S. House, for the seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking a second term.
Sinema, the first female senator from Arizona, won as a Democrat in 2018 but dropped her affiliation and became an independent in 2022.
Democrats control the Senate by the barest of margins, 51-49, with Sinema and two other independents working with them to forge a majority.
Republicans hold 23 of the 34 seats on the ballot in November, and analysts see no trouble in any of those states for the GOP. Democrats are on defense. Seats they hold in Montana and Ohio are rated as toss-ups, which leaves no margin for error in Arizona.
At the National Republican Senatorial Committee, spokesperson Tate Mitchell said Arizona is also a priority for the GOP.
“Arizona remains one of the top pick-up opportunities for Republicans this cycle,” he said.
A Fox News poll released Aug. 28 gave Gallego a 15-point advantage over Lake, though other recent polls have shown a tight contest. A CNN poll released Sept. 4 showed Gallego’s lead at just 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race “lean Democrat,” one step up from toss-up.
Money has poured into the race on both sides.
According to campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets, at least $62 million had been spent by the candidates or outside groups through the end of June. Gallego led Lake 3-1 at that point.
About $258 million was spent in Arizona’s last Senate race, when Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly defeated GOP nominee Blake Masters. That was the third costliest U.S. Senate battle of 2022, according to OpenSecrets.
In the final stretch, Peters said the DSCC will invest in more “on-the-ground” resources such as hiring canvassers to go door-to-door and boost voter engagement.
Republicans will also ramp up their efforts in Arizona in the final eight weeks of the campaign, said the NRSC’s Tate.
