Mark Kelly VP: What would Arizona senator, in office just four years, bring to the Kamala Harris ticket if she taps him for vice president?

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz. Is one of the top contenders in the veepstakes (File photo by Meg Potter/Cronkite News)

WASHINGTON – Of the contenders Vice President Kamala Harris is vetting as a possible running mate, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly is the only one who’s been to space, traveling over 20 million miles for NASA.

But does he have the right stuff to join the Democratic ticket?

“This is not about me,” he told reporters at the Capitol on Wednesday. “This is about the future of this country.”

Kelly is a newcomer to politics, elected less than four years ago. He lacks the executive experience of the governors on Harris’ short list. But he has a far more moderate image than Harris, and other attributes that also could balance the ticket.

Harris would be the first woman and only the second person of color to become president.
Most of the options on her list are white men.

Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Phoenix, who is running for U.S. Senate to replace Independent Kyrsten Sinema, told CNN that Kelly would represent exactly the sort of “jolt” Harris needs.

Kelly endorsed Harris on Sunday, roughly two hours after President Joe Biden announced he was dropping his reelection bid and endorsing his vice president. Kelly called her the “right person to defeat Donald Trump.”

Biden and Harris carried Arizona by just over 10,000 votes in 2020. Trump has led in recent polls and has been pulling further ahead in a state that Democrats can ill afford to lose.

Kelly won his own 2020 contest by about 80,000 votes, defeating appointed GOP Sen. Martha McSally. In 2022, he beat challenger Blake Masters – a Trump acolyte like the newly minted GOP nominee for vice president, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance – by about 125,000 votes.

“The path through the White House runs through Arizona, and we are confident that with Kamala Harris and Mark Kelly at the top of the ticket, Democrats will win in November,” Arizona Democratic Party Chair Yolanda Bejarano said, announcing the endorsement of Kelly by the state party’s executive board. “Senator Kelly is exactly the type of leader Arizonans want, and America needs.”

Democrats hope to shore up support for Harris in the Sun Belt, and Kelly’s success in Arizona gives strategists comfort that he would be an asset, not only in his home state, but perhaps in neighboring Nevada, too. They see his military roots playing well in Georgia. He grew up in New Jersey and also has called Texas home.

Gallego called the Harris-Kelly combination “the best ticket.”

“He’s a border state senator, understands border issues, is an astronaut, married to Gabby Giffords. It’s all a good combination right there,” he told CNN.

Kelly is 60 – eight months older than Harris, who is 59. Both are a generation younger than Trump and a generation older than Vance.

He’s a former astronaut and Navy combat pilot – a credential that could appeal to veterans, a demographic the Biden campaign started targeting in early July.

Kelly was more bipartisan than all but 23 other senators in 2023, according to rankings by the Lugar Center and the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University.

He has worked closely with Sinema and Joe Manchin of West Virginia – both former Democrats – taking the moderate lane and showing bipartisanship, particularly on less controversial issues like infrastructure and energy.

The centrist ties cut both ways, potentially hurting Kelly’s prospects among progressives in Harris’ base while also giving her a chance to broaden her appeal in November.

Kelly’s fundraising acumen could be an asset in what is shaping up to be the most expensive election cycle ever.

Harris raised $100 million in the first 48 hours since she announced her candidacy. Kelly raised nearly that much in his 2020 campaign, an impressive sum for a Senate contest.

NBC News and other outlets have reported that Harris’ campaign team has requested vetting materials from five potential running mates.

Apart from Kelly, the list includes three swing state governors – Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan – and Tim Walz of Minnesota, which has been solidly Democratic for decades in presidential contests.

What are his odds?

Kelly currently has the highest odds of being Harris’ VP pick, according to Polymarket, a website where people can bet on the outcome of current events. The site estimated his odds at around 35% as of Wednesday evening, well ahead of Shapiro at 21% and Cooper at 14%.

A PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll on Sunday found that among Democrats and left-leaning independents, 13% preferred Kelly. Whitmer and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led the field at 21% each.

An October 2022 poll conducted by Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research and Univision found that Kelly had a 47% favorable rating among registered voters and a 60% favorable rating among registered Latino voters.

Border

One key vulnerability for Harris is border security. Republicans have castigated her as a failed “border czar” – though her actual assignment from Biden was to work with Central American countries to reduce their outmigration.

Either way, it’s an area where Kelly could help politically.

He helped craft six bills to support the Border Patrol. He touts legislative efforts aimed at protecting Americans and curbing illegal immigration – at times bucking his party.

He has supported measures to boost pay for agents and address staffing shortages. He backed the End Fentanyl Act, which became law in March, to tighten border inspections and block fentanyl from entering the country.

“I’ve been strong on border security and I’ve stood up to Democrats when they’re wrong on this issue … including the president,” Kelly said in a 2022 Senate debate.

But Harris is unpopular with the Border Patrol Union and nothing will change that, the union’s national vice president, Arturo Del Cueto, told Cronkite News by phone.

Kelly brings foreign relations chops that some governors lack.

Last week, he was in Mexico with other federal lawmakers and met with President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, discussing immigration, economic growth and security.

“We continue strengthening the historic relationship between both of our nations,” he said afterward.

Guns

Kelly’s wife, Gabby Giffords, then a member of the U.S. House, was shot in the head in 2011 during a gun control event in Tucson. They founded a group now known as Giffords, which is devoted to reducing gun violence.

It’s a delicate subject politically, and Kelly – unlike Harris – is not seen as a gun-grabber by conservatives.

He’s a gun owner but also an outspoken advocate of curbs on access to certain firearms.

Unions

Harris received numerous union endorsements in the brief time since Biden passed the torch.

Kelly isn’t entirely popular with unions. In the veepstakes, that would weigh against him in a party where organized labor is a major constituency.

Unions have criticized the senator for resisting the Protecting the Right to Organize Act. He cited concerns about a loophole that could be used to target independent contractors.

Kelly defended his record on unions on Wednesday at the Capitol.

“I see the value of unions, and I come from a union family… I’ve always supported the PRO Act,” he said.

Israel Torres, who manages a Tempe consulting and law firm that specializes in union matters, said Kelly worked closely with UA Local 469 – a union for plumbers, pipefitters and HVAC technicians – with regard to the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

He’s been especially supportive of ensuring parental leave, Torres said.

“He understands the middle class and how workforce development is super important to them,” Torres said. “To not only have these jobs, but to provide for their families.”

Israel-Palestine Conflict

The Israel-Hamas conflict has caused some rifts within the Democratic Party.

Kelly has supported aid for Israel. But as the conflict has gone on and the death toll in Gaza has escalated, he has shifted left – adding his voice to calls for conditioning aid on more restraint by Israeli forces.

“We never want to see innocent women, children, old people getting killed. That has happened at a pretty high rate here,” Kelly said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” in early May.

Kelly, unlike Harris and some other Democrats, attended Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress on Wednesday.

According to Track AIPAC, a website that keeps track of donations to politicians from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Kelly has received nearly $500,000 from the group since he began his career in politics.

What happens in Arizona if he becomes vice president?

If Harris picks Kelly and they win, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs would name his replacement until 2026 when a special election would take place to fill the remaining two years of his term.

That scenario has sparked fear among Democrats.

“If we take Sen. Kelly, there’s a high chance a Republican could replace him,” said Markus Ceniceros of Avondale, one of the Arizona Democratic delegates who’ll ratify the nominations.

But others in the veepstakes also come from swing states where a vacancy would cause complications.

“There has to be a very cautioned approach to picking a high profile senator or governor,” Ceniceros said.