Arizona State defensive back Javan Robinson’s (No. 12) late interception seals the Sun Devils’ win against BYU to finish the regular season with a perfect 6-0 home record. (Photo by Spencer Barnes/Cronkite News)
PHOENIX— So nice, they did it twice.
Not only is that true of the Arizona State faithful’s field storming on Saturday, but it can also be said about the team’s past two weeks, as the Sun Devils beat consecutive ranked opponents and moved to 9-2 on the season, 6-2 in the conference, and most importantly, first place in the Big 12 with just one week to play in the regular season.
That resume was good enough to land the Sun Devils at No. 16 in the College Football Playoff rankings. However, they still sit five spots behind No. 11 Boise State (10-1), with a host of three-loss SEC teams in between them. Based on that, it feels like a far cry for the prospective Big 12 champion to leapfrog that high to grab the final first-round bye without a loss from the Broncos.
Another team seeking a conference championship, and vying for an automatic bid, is nipping at the heels of the Sun Devils. The Tulane Green Wave (9-2) of the American Athletic Conference are ranked No. 17, and have the potential to steal the Big 12’s playoff bid.
“We just felt Arizona State is playing at a level that moves them up ahead of Tulane, but as you can see, they’re one away from each other, so we think highly of both of them,” said committee chair Warde Manuel.
The Sun Devils and Green Wave share a common opponent, No. 24 Kansas State, which re-entered the rankings this week. While ASU jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead on the Wildcats, and won 24-14 on the road in Manhattan, Kansas, Tulane fell to the Wildcats in New Orleans, 34-27, in Week 2. While the Green Wave are riding an eight-game win streak, they lack a ranked win to the Sun Devils’ two.
Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina were ranked 13, 14, and 15, respectively, ahead of ASU despite posting 8-3 records. The Tide and Rebels have victories over No. 7 Georgia in their home stadiums, but have multiple slip-ups to unranked opponents.
The Gamecocks hold losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, along with unranked LSU, but beat No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3) and No. 21 Missouri (8-3). Their two best wins are comparable to the Sun Devils, as BYU, which dropped to No. 19, and Kansas State are ranked in the bottom half of the top 25, but the discrepancy is most likely in the “good losses” that kept the Gamecocks ahead of the Sun Devils.
The committee has said in the past that it takes into consideration the fact that ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt was out during the Sun Devils’ second loss of the season, a 10-point defeat in Cincinnati.
“It was part of the discussion.” Manuel said a week ago about Leavitt’s injury.
Aside from the debate around the bubble teams, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame should expect to make the final CFP bracket, even with a loss during rivalry week.
Arizona State’s late-game challenges have raised questions during the past two weeks. Despite coming away with two ranked wins and outscoring teams 42-3 in the first half, the Sun Devils have been outscored 34-10 in the second half. They take on the University of Arizona (4-7) Saturday in Tucson to close out the regular season.
“We value winning, but yeah, we do see when teams are playing close games and how they finish and whether they win them or lose them,” Manuel said. “We do watch that. But we value ultimately when teams do find a way to win.”
With just one week remaining in the regular season, it seems likely that the Sun Devils can play their way into the field of 12 if they win out. A win in the Territorial Cup almost certainly comes with a trip to Arlington, Texas for the Big 12 Championship game. Two wins would earn a bid to the CFP.
Deciphering this as I interpret it: The only way an ASU win over Arizona would not result in a B12 title game appearance is if Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech and Cincinnati win their last game AND Houston beats BYU.
Highly unlikely. pic.twitter.com/bOd0DwxgzL
— Chris Karpman (@ChrisKarpman) November 24, 2024
In what seems like an unimaginable statement for the team that was picked to finish last in the Big 12 conference at the start of the season, ASU coach Kenny Dillingham’s team is in the driver’s seat with one week to play.
“You’re only as good as your next game. You have to prove to people constantly that you are deserving of something,” Dillingham said Monday. “Do I think the body of work we’ve put together is worthy of it (a spot in the CFP)? Yes.
“Do I think our body of work is worthy if we lose this game? No.”
