Arizona State continues to draw national attention, with running back Cam Skattebo leading the Sun Devils’ offense despite sitting out (injury) last Saturday at UCF. (Photo by Daniella Trujillo/Cronkite News)
PHOENIX – A team that’s not even in the Top 25 with three weeks remaining in the regular season could play a significant role in how the College Football Playoff 12-team field shakes out.
Enter Arizona State.
The Sun Devils, 7-2 after beating UCF without running back Cam Skattebo, will be one of the most consequential teams in deciding who secures the Big 12 automatic conference bid to the playoff. With two of their remaining three games against top-20 opponents – a road game against No. 16 Kansas State (7-2) Saturday and a home meeting versus No. 6 BYU (9-0) Nov. 23 – everything is on the table for ASU, including a bid to the CFP itself via a Big 12 championship. The Suns Devils close the regular season against Arizona Nov. 30 in Tucson.
Despite the committee snubbing ASU in Tuesday’s rankings in favor of three-loss teams such as Louisville, South Carolina and LSU, and Group of 5 teams Army (9-0) and Tulane (8-2), the Sun Devils have caught the attention of the national media, earning a slot on the main ESPN broadcast the next two weeks.
BYU, which sits atop the Big 12 standings at 9-0, earned more respect from the committee after a controversial win over crosstown rival Utah. The Cougars landed at six, still behind No. 3 Texas (8-1), No. 4 Penn State (8-1) and No. 5 Indiana (10-0), despite posting two ranked wins compared to zero by the others combined. BYU did jump ahead of Tennessee, who stayed at No. 7.
“It really came down to the play last week, winning a big game on their schedule,” CFP chair Warde Manuel said. “We just felt that (BYU) and Indiana earned their spots.”
Even while moving up and receiving praise, Indiana and BYU had arguably their worst performances of the season, with the Hoosiers grinding out a 20-15 win over defending national champions Michigan, and the Cougars beating the Utes by just one point after a controversial holding penalty called on Utah in the fourth quarter. Still, Indiana and BYU continue to control their destinies, as winning out gets both in the playoff.
Tuesday’s rankings reflected a weekend of chaos, as Georgia and Miami, both ranked in the top five entering their games, lost. The Bulldogs came into the week at No. 3, despite a loss to Alabama earlier in the year, but the second loss, this time on the road to Ole Miss (8-2), was a tipping point for the committee, as they plummeted to No. 12.
The Hurricanes, on the other hand, with a relatively light resume, only fell five spots, from No. 4 to No. 9, even with a loss to 6-4 Georgia Tech. They’re still the highest-ranked ACC team, but No. 14 SMU (8-1) is now in sole possession of first place and has the inside track to a first-round bye.
Nine SEC teams landed in the Top 25, but the most unexpected rankings were at the bottom. South Carolina and LSU, both 6-3, came in at No. 21 and No. 22, respectively, even though LSU beat the Gamecocks on the road on Sept. 14.
“South Carolina and LSU have gone in different directions (since that game),” Manuel said. “We do look at head to head, we obviously look at that very closely … but in this particular case, we also looked at the body of work and where those teams are.”
The Gamecocks have indeed played better as of late, walloping No. 15 Texas A&M 44-20 and beating Vanderbilt the last two weeks, while LSU has dropped two in a row, albeit to ranked teams, by a combined 44 points. Factoring all that in though, it was still an unlikely decision to have them just a single spot above, which was certain to cause controversy.
Notre Dame, fresh off a 52-3 thumping of Florida State, moved up to No. 8, and should be safe to receive an invite if it wins out. The Fighting Irish face No. 24 Army in Yankee Stadium Nov. 23 as the only ranked team remaining on the schedule. However, they aren’t the only team seeking an at-large bid, though.
The Washington State Cougars, who remained in the Pac-12 with Oregon State after conference realignment, are 8-1 and have an outside shot to earn a CFP bid. Without a conference championship game, they sit in the same situation as the Fighting Irish and must earn their way in.
With a current ranking of No. 18, and no games left against teams currently over .500, the Cougars face a steep road to climb. However, whether they’re included or not, it’s one of the best stories of resilience in college football that few are addressing.
The week ahead holds even more potential CFP shake-up games. ASU visiting No. 16 Kansas State will take a back seat in primetime, when No. 7 Tennessee travels to No. 12 Georgia. As the playoff field becomes more crowded, it could be an elimination game for both teams, especially with how many SEC contenders are rounding into form.
With the four top-ranked teams playing on the road against unranked opponents, chaos could ensue this weekend to shake up the rankings even more.
