Border Patrol agents process migrants who crossed the border illegally in a facility in McAllen, Texas, in this photo from June 2018. (File photo by U.S. Customs and Border Protection)
WASHINGTON – President-elect Donald Trump made mass deportations his signature campaign promise, and in his victory speech Wednesday, he asserted that voters gave him “an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
Does that mandate extend to rounding up and expelling 11 million undocumented immigrants?
Polls show relatively soft support for a proposal with such widespread impact.
Arizona U.S. Reps. Paul Gosar, Eli Crane and Andy Biggs were among the Republicans who have echoed Trump’s call for mass deportations. But not all Republicans seeking federal office this year jumped on the bandwagon.
“We need mass deportations and NO AMNESTY!” Gosar posted on the social media platform X last year when Trump unveiled the idea of militarized mass deportations at the Conservative Political Action Conference.
Biggs posted that “All illegal aliens must be deported,” and in 2022, he narrated a half-hour documentary aimed at demonstrating a “migrant invasion” underway at the border. Kari Lake, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona, called for deporting all unauthorized immigrants in February.
“In order to save our homeland, we need to send them back to their homeland and start repatriating these people,” she said.
Seven-term U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Fountain Hills, seeking reelection in a toss-up district that includes Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, openly distanced himself from Trump’s proposal as he sought to fend off Democrat Amish Shah.
“He thinks his district is probably a little bit more moderate than Andy Biggs’ district or Eli Crane’s district,” said Republican consultant Marcus Dell’Artino. That, he added, “probably led to him talking about other immigration measures other than deportation.”
Other Republicans also downplayed Trump’s mass deportation rhetoric even as they emphasized other proposals to beef up border security.
In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz – a top Trump ally who won a third term Tuesday – said he would prioritize removal of migrants who committed crimes over a broad roundup of millions.
“You obviously prioritize and you start with violent criminals,” Cruz told Austin TV station KXAN.
A PRRI American Values Survey from a month ago found 47% support for mass deportations.
A Scripps/Ipsos poll conducted in mid-September put the support nationally at 54%, and at 49% in Arizona.
There’s a huge partisan gap.
A Fox News poll in October found support for mass deportations was 91% among Republicans and 42% among Democrats. The Scripps/Ipsos poll put the gap at 86% for Republicans, 58% for independents and 25% for Democrats.
But polls also show broad support for a path for citizenship and, especially for younger migrants, protection from deportation, reflecting the nuances in public preferences.
Border Patrol agents process scores of migrants who crossed the border in El Paso, Texas, in this photo from March 2019. (Photo by Mani Albrecht/U.S. Customs and Border Protection)
An October poll from Data for Progress, a progressive think tank, found that 70% of respondents support quick removal of recent arrivals who entered the country illegally. But support plummets to about 20% for asylum-seekers and people brought to the U.S. as children, and to 24% for longtime U.S. residents.
Mass deportations would have dramatic implications for portions of the U.S. populace. The Center for Migration Studies estimated two years ago that one-third of the nation’s 21 million Hispanic immigrants lack documents allowing them to be in the country.
According to the Department of Homeland Security, there are 11 million “unauthorized immigrants” in the U.S. – a figure that includes people who entered the country without permission or stayed after their visa expired.
Many live with relatives who are U.S. citizens – including spouses, siblings, parents and children. Trump has not signaled any leniency for parents of young American citizens.
Some GOP candidates fully embraced Trump’s proposal.
In Ohio, Bernie Moreno, who ousted Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown on Tuesday, based his campaign on “kicking out” undocumented immigrants. He called for the deportation of lawful Haitian immigrants living in Springfield, Ohio – the city at the heart of Trump’s false claims about Haitian immigrants eating pet cats and dogs.
Reyna Montoya, founder of Aliento, an Arizona-based group that advocates for immigrants with a variety of legal status, said she expects Trump to follow through with his mass deportation promise.
It’s not mere “campaign talk,” she said – though the logistical challenges and costs would be prohibitive, a view widely shared by immigration enforcement experts.
“Do they have the capability of doing that? Probably not deporting 11 million people on the spot, but they do have the infrastructure to do a lot of harm,” Montoya said. “This is where we are right now, sadly, in our nation.”
Trump advisers say there’s no doubt he will follow through, among them Tom Homan, who led Immigration and Customs Enforcement for 18 months during Trump’s first term.
“I will run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen,” Homan said at a conservative conference in Washington in July. “They ain’t seen s— yet. Wait until 2025.”
Although polls showed mixed support for mass deportation, concern about illegal immigration was “clearly the No. 1 issue” this election, according to Dell’Artino.
“Clearly, talking about immigration had an effect and led to Trump’s win, as well as numerous Republican wins in the U.S. Senate,” he said. “People have massively underestimated the frustration throughout this country with immigration.”
ICE veterans and other experts largely agree that it would be impossible to identify, find, process and deport 11 million people during the next four years. But with enough resources and political will, it would be possible, eventually – especially if, as supporters of the proposal expect, many leave voluntarily before getting caught.
The American Immigration Council, an advocacy group, estimated that deportations on this scale would cost $968 billion over the course of a decade.
By some estimates, removing so many people from the U.S. workforce would cut the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) by anywhere from 4.2% to 6.8%.
Pablo Correa, executive director of Rural Arizona Action, a nonprofit that advocates for rural communities, said mass deportation is not viable, isn’t a good solution to the immigration crisis and would harm the agricultural sector.
“He has no mandate,” Correa said. “Our communities need to prepare to push back, take care of each other and to continue to advocate for immigrant communities.”
“It would destroy the rural communities and the local economies,” he said. “There is nothing good that will come out of this policy.”
Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, a policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, agreed that draining the labor force needed in farming, construction and other industries could have a devastating effect on the economy.
But she’s not so sure Trump can’t deliver on his promise – as long as Republicans control Congress and can authorize billions of dollars for the effort.
The GOP has already clinched a Senate majority. Vote-counting continues in dozens of House races nationwide as the party seeks to expand its slim majority.
“It would require increased resources to Immigration and Customs Enforcement in order to carry out such an event, which would require congressional cooperation,” Putzel-Kavanaugh said. “We’ve been in a divided Congress for many years now. If the House and the Senate are both controlled by Republicans, that will be more likely.”
She added that a mass-deportation effort is sure to be challenged in court.
“Various groups will react to it,” she said. “It’s going to be litigated.”