Concerns about the future of Social Security gnaw at voters, and younger workers doubt they’ll ever collect benefits despite the payroll taxes they’re paying into the system. But that’s not driving their choices in the 2024 elections. (Photo by Douglas Sacha/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON – Many younger workers don’t believe they will ever see a dime of Social Security benefits.
“I think the program will be shut down by the time I stop working,” said Peter Fairbanks, 24, a territory manager in Phoenix at a company that sells skin care products.
The skepticism is widespread, though Gen Zers and Millennials also tend not to worry much about benefits they may or may not collect in four or five decades. So the issue may not make much difference to them on Election Day, Arizona political experts say – unless one of the presidential contenders comes up with a plan to ensure the program’s survival.
“It wouldn’t be super high on my priorities,” said 23-year-old Syd Schonwald of Phoenix, a field engineer at Skanska, a general contractor.
He’s resigned to the idea that by the time he’s 67 – the current retirement age for anyone born since 1959 – he’ll have to wait even longer to collect Social Security, if it’s still there for him at all.
“I’m young enough to where I think I have enough time to plan that out,” he said.
A recent Nationwide Retirement Institute survey conducted by the Harris Poll found that 45% of Gen Zers and 39% of Millennials believe they’ll never collect Social Security benefits.
“Their own use of the program seems distant and uncertain, and the true tangible cost to them on a biweekly basis is mostly hidden and unquantified,” said James Gimpel, a government professor at the University of Maryland.
But Gen Z workers would like to hear more detailed proposals to shore up Social Security and avoid benefit cuts – as would 95% of voters across parties and generations, according to a poll from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which advocates for fiscal responsibility.
Ensuring the availability of Social Security both for current retirees and for workers decades away from retirement is important to 96% of voters, the poll found.
Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have been vague about how they would shore up the program.
The program as currently structured is headed to insolvency because payments to current retirees come from payroll taxes paid by current workers.
As the population ages, the imbalance between those groups has widened; there’s not enough coming in compared to spending.
The most recent Social Security Trustees Report put the annual shortfall at around $40 billion – with costs of $1,392 billion and revenue of $1,351 billion.
The latest projection shows the fund will run out of reserves in 2033 without changes to revenue, benefits or the retirement age. Without any changes, the trustees foresee the need to slash benefits by about 20% starting in 2034.
The last time Congress raised the retirement age was in 1983, when it went from 65 to 67 – phased in over 33 years.
Anyone born after 1959 must wait until they turn 67 to collect full retirement benefits. Reduced benefits are available at age 62.
No solutions to impending insolvency are popular: raising taxes, cutting benefits across the board, capping benefits for people with higher income or more wealth.
Raising the retirement age is one of the most straightforward options. Raising it to 70 would effectively cut average benefits by 20%, based on life expectancies.
Biden has promised not to cut benefits. He also has campaigned on a pledge to raise taxes on people with high incomes, in part to keep Social Security afloat.
Currently, income up to $168,600 a year is subject to Social Security payroll tax. Biden’s plan would raise the cap to $400,000.
A proposal to do just that has gotten no traction in Congress, but the Social Security Administration projects that such a change, with a handful of more esoteric tax code tweaks, would keep the system solvent for another 75 years.
Such a tax increase would be a nonstarter for Republicans in Congress.
Like Biden, Trump has also pledged to protect Social Security but has not provided details on how.
The updated GOP platform vows to protect the program “with no cuts, including no changes to the retirement age.”
The GOP platform links border security to Social Security, on the premise that migrants sap the system. Studies by the left-leaning Brookings Institution and the Bipartisan Policy Center have found that immigrants – including those who arrive illegally – are a net positive to Social Security.
Only U.S. citizens can collect Social Security benefits, but many immigrants pay into the system through payroll taxes.
The oldest members of Gen Z are 27. Millennial refers to the generation currently aged 28 to 43.
Among voting-age members of those groups, 93% want to keep Social Security solvent, according to the Peterson Foundation poll.
Fairbanks called the retirement program’s future “really low” on his list. He’s more concerned about the national debt, now $34.9 trillion and rising.
“We should prioritize that over Social Security,” he said, adding that “Social Security should be something that we take a look at once we have taken care of our national debt.”