WASHINGTON – Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez and Adelita Grijalva – who hopes to fill her father’s old seat in Congress – are neck-and-neck among donors ahead of Tuesday’s special primary.
Both campaigns say they have raised about $1,030,000, with Grijalva catching up thanks to a burst of late donations after campaign filings that covered the period through June 25.
The former member of the Pima County Board of Supervisors is hoping to succeed longtime Tucson Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who died of cancer in March. She reported $835,000 to the Federal Election Commission. Her campaign said Wednesday that she raised nearly $200,000 more since then.
Hernandez, a former aide to former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, reported $981,000 through June 25. His campaign put the latest tally at $1,029,000.
Arizona’s 7th Congressional District spans nearly the entire state border with Mexico, taking in parts of Tucson and Yuma.
It is overwhelmingly Democratic.
Raúl Grijalva, first elected in 2002, sailed to reelection last November 63-37 over Republican Daniel Butierez, a small business owner from Tucson who is making another run at the seat in Tuesday’s GOP primary.
“The Democratic primary … is almost certainly going to determine who Grijalva’s successor is,” said Erin Covey, the U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report, a respected nonpartisan handicapper.
The winner moves on to the Sept. 23 special election to determine who fills the seat through January 2027.
Deja Foxx, a third Democratic contender, advocate and social media influencer, raised just over $600,000.
She entered the final stretch with $100,000 cash on hand – topping Hernandez’s $37,000 stash but trailing Adelita Grijalva’s nearly $128,000.
Covey said Hernandez’s dwindling reserves are “an indication that his fundraising may have petered off” and that his “campaign momentum is slowing down.”
She considers Grijalva the front-runner based on endorsements and polling but noted that Hernandez and Foxx have raised “a decent amount of money.” They need it, she said, given Grijalva’s name recognition and her father’s legacy.
They “just aren’t as well known, so they have to spend more in order to get their name ID among voters,” she said.
Off-year special elections in the heat of summer generally don’t draw big turnouts.
This one may draw extra interest on the Democratic side given how active the candidates have been, Covey said.
Two other Democratic candidates have not filed FEC reports, which are required only if a candidate breaks $5,000.
Two of the three Republicans competing in the GOP special primary filed FEC reports.
Butierez has raised over $43,000. He also loaned his campaign $136,000 in personal funds.
Jorge Rivas, a Tucson restaurant owner, reported raising about $11,000.
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