WASHINGTON – Like many Democratic incumbents this year, four-term Rep. Greg Stanton of Phoenix faces a challenge from the left, making the July 21 primary the latest test as the party’s progressive wing asserts itself.
Five House Democrats have already lost their seats in primaries this year, three of them to progressive rivals who painted them as too timid in standing up to President Donald Trump, or too beholden to business interests.
Tempe activist Kai Newkirk is making that very case against Stanton, who has never faced a primary challenge, including when he won the seat in 2018.
“People asked me to consider running against him for years,” Newkirk said. “I just saw that he wasn’t responding to the emergency of Trump’s authoritarian actions with the urgency that was required.”
But political analysts say that’s likely a hard sell in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District, which includes parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Chandler and Mesa.
“This challenge fits into the broader pattern that we’ve seen of challengers on the left to Democratic incumbents based on criticism that they are too cozy with the establishment,” said Alan Abramowitz, professor emeritus of political science at Emory University.
The district is rated solid Democratic by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. But there are more unaffiliated voters than those registered with either party, and Republicans slightly outnumber Democrats.
Stanton’s victory margin dwindled to 7 percentage points in 2024 after redistricting made the district more competitive, and Abramowitz said the electorate is nowhere near as liberal as those in deep-blue districts in New York and Colorado, where Democratic Socialists scored recent upsets.
Stanton’s campaign responded by touting his pushback against Trump’s immigration policies and tariffs; efforts to improve the district’s water and energy infrastructure; support for Democratic candidates in Arizona and other states; and accessibility to constituents.
The mayor of Phoenix before winning a House seat in 2018, Stanton has a 97% lifetime score from the liberal League of Conservation Voters and a 0% score from the conservative Heritage Action.
At the same time, his 22% rating in 2025 from the conservative Institute for Legislative Analysis was far higher than the 11% average for House Democrats.
That reflects some of the more moderate positions Stanton has taken on immigration, and his emphasis on relatively nonpartisan issues like transportation funding, infrastructure, water security, veterans, Arizona’s semiconductor industry and economic development.
The emphasis on bipartisan accomplishments is at odds with progressive demands for a combative approach and a distinct leftward shift – though Democrats have been in the minority for half of his time in Congress, making partisan achievements all but impossible.
That fight for the direction of the party has already cost some colleagues their seats.
In Colorado, 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette was defeated by 29-year-old Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros on June 30.
In New York City, voters picked three Democratic Socialists in the June 23 primary.
Rep. Dan Goldman, who gained national prominence as lead counsel for House Democrats during Trump’s first impeachment, lost to former city Comptroller Brad Lander. Five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat – chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus – lost to activist Darializa Avila Chevalier.
Both challengers were backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist who Trump describes as a communist, as was a third candidate who won the nomination for an open seat in Brooklyn.
Primaries in both parties are typically dominated by the most engaged and partisan voters.
Scot Schraufnagel, a political science professor at Northern Illinois University, doesn’t see a critical mass for a candidate like Newkirk in Stanton’s district.
Arizona Democrats are generally “more conservative than Democrats in New York,” he said, making a progressive upset there unlikely.
Through July 1, Stanton reported raising around $2 million and he has about that much still in the bank, suggesting he doesn’t feel compelled to spend heavily to survive the primary.
Newkirk’s campaign has said it has raised more than $100,000.
Since World War II, House incumbents seeking reelection have won their primaries 98.3% of the time, according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
According to data from the Secretary of State’s office, the district has about 10,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, though 35% of voters are unaffiliated.
Stanton won the 2018 and 2020 general elections with more than 61% of the vote. He dipped to 56% in 2022, and fell below 53% in 2024.
Like DeGette’s opponent and the three New Yorkers, Newkirk has been endorsed by Our Revolution, the progressive organization that grew out of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign.
The group claims roughly 20,000 members in the district. Our Revolution communications and campaign director Paco Fabian told Axios that the group is trying to bolster the progressive wing of Congress, arguing Stanton has not mounted strong enough opposition to Trump.
Newkirk’s campaign says it has polling that shows him within 2 percentage points of Stanton, with a third of primary voters undecided. Stanton’s camp has polling that shows he holds a commanding 2-1 lead.
Stanton collected more than 49,000 votes running unopposed in the 2024 primary.
In all, five House Democrats and two House Republicans have been ousted in primaries so far. That’s already above average, and 20 more states have yet to hold primaries.
Despite that, said Jamie Carson, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, incumbents still enjoy advantages in name recognition, fundraising and visibility.
But with electorates increasingly polarized, he said, “the conditions under which incumbents become vulnerable” are becoming more common.
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