PHOENIX – Ten weeks into another chaotic and unpredictable college football season, it’s that time of the year again.
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its first ballot of the top 25 teams in the country Tuesday night, an undertaking that usually creates an uproar among certain fan bases around the country about the process and selections.
However, for what seems like the first time in years, the public reaction was fairly tame. Besides a few perceived inconsistencies in the committee’s reasoning, the initial top 25 has been deemed to be a fair deal by fans.
Big 12 features multiple teams
The Big 12 found itself in a surprisingly good position Tuesday night. Brigham Young, still undefeated, earned the highest marks within the conference coming in at No. 7. Texas Tech is nipping at the Cougars’ heels, placing at No. 8.
The Red Raiders’ lone blemish on their record this season came in Tempe, where Arizona State pulled off a 26-22 upset Oct. 18 with a late touchdown drive by Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt. That loss wasn’t viewed as damaging by the committee, however, because Texas Tech played with backup quarterback Will Hammond.
“The loss at Arizona State without Behren (Morton) at quarterback,” Selection Committee chair Mack Rhoades said in a media teleconference call, describing how the selection committee views the Red Raiders. “Arizona State wins that late, so we do talk about quality wins. We also talk about quality losses. But Texas Tech (is) just a really, really good football team.”
The Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) and the Cougars (8-0, 5-0) battle Saturday in Lubbock, Texas.
“Look, we tried to help ESPN out with their ratings (by) getting BYU and Texas Tech together with ‘Gameday’ in Lubbock, so enjoy that,” Rhoades said in a tongue-in-cheek manner.
The Big 12 had three teams crack the first rankings, with Utah coming in at No. 13. The Utes’ two losses came to both the Cougars and Red Raiders, but their placement above the highest ranking ACC team, No. 14 Virginia, should be seen as a sign of respect for the conference, and a growing possibility of multiple bids to the playoff dance.
Texas Tech and BYU both have resumes and quality wins that the committee deems to be impressive enough to place both inside the top 10, so it’s difficult to see either team dropping far no matter what happens Saturday, excluding a blowout.
A win for the Cougars, however, would be ideal for a fellow Big 12 team trying to get back in the race, like ASU. A loss for the Red Raiders would bring them into a tie in the standings with the Sun Devils, who own the head-to-head tiebreaker and have a bye this week.
ASU would have to jump a few more teams, but it’s worth monitoring this weekend. Just because a team didn’t appear in the rankings this week doesn’t mean they have no chance to make it into the bracket.
“If we go back to last year, Arizona State wasn’t even in the rankings (for) our first two rankings,” Rhoades said. “Again, to everybody out there, this is the first ranking and (there is) still a lot of ball left to be played.”
Who’s on top?
The committee typically consists of 13 members who serve a three-year term. This season’s members consist of former coaches, players, current athletic directors and one former journalist. Former Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, former Nebraska and Oregon State coach Mike Riley, and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel are some of the notable names at this season’s table.
Randall McDaniel, a former Arizona State offensive lineman who spent 14 years in the NFL, was on the selection committee this season, but he recently stepped away for personal reasons, bringing the current committee to just 12 members. McDaniel was part of the Sun Devils’ 1987 Rose Bowl team. He is enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the College Football Hall of Fame.
At the top of the poll are Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M, all undefeated and with wins over top-12 teams. Alabama follows closely behind at No. 4 to round out the top four seeds that would receive byes. The top six teams in the rankings all hail from either the SEC or Big Ten.
There was plenty of chatter about how the committee would differentiate the three undefeated teams at the top. Rhoades said the resumes between the Buckeyes, Hoosiers and Aggies were similar, but the committee liked what they saw in the Big Ten schools more, both in the box score and on film.
“It was certainly close,” Rhoades said. “But when we looked at film, and we’re blessed to have committee members and coaches that do a lot of film work, we just felt like Ohio State had a slight edge when we think about offensive line play and then a slight edge defensively. That was really the outcome. Ohio State has some, I’m going to call them, explosive players that probably stood out as well.”
Strength of schedule changes
The College Football Playoff has revised its selection process this season with new metrics and a set of core principles the committee will follow during the decision-making process.
Those principles are strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparable outcomes between teams with common opponents, and various factors that would impact a team’s performance, such as injuries to key players.
The changes revolve around a new strength-of-record data metric, which came after both Indiana and SMU made the bracket last season, while the SEC featured just three teams, irritating the conference where “It just means more” to no end.
The strength-of-record metric aims to reward teams more for beating high-quality opponents and penalize them less for losing to such teams. On the other end, it penalizes teams more for losing to lower-quality opponents and provides little reward for winning those games.
Seems fair, right?
Well, mostly. The issue for some is that the public has no idea what the metric looks like and how it is being calculated. Different websites and outlets calculate the strength of schedule and record differently, so the data the selection committee uses is an important missing piece of the puzzle.
That’s where the undeniable “eye test” comes into play. Miami and Notre Dame played in Week 1. The Hurricanes won that game on their home soil. Both now have 6-2 records. Surely, Miami is the higher-ranked team, right?
Nope. In fact, not only is Notre Dame ranked higher at No. 10, but the two teams are separated by eight spots. Miami appeared at No. 18 in the rankings after two recent losses to now-No. 15 Louisville and this past week at SMU.
The Irish haven’t beaten a noteworthy team besides No. 20 USC, and they boast a quality loss to Texas A&M. The rankings raise questions about the value of head-to-head competition vs. wins against inferior competition.
“We refer to it as art and science,” Rhoades said. “I think the art is watching the team on film and tape and how good they are, how physical they are up front, offensive line, defensive line play, how good are they up the middle, their quarterback play, their skill players, and then certainly contemplating and looking at metrics.”
Rhoades noted that no one metric is weighted heavier than another, and that discussion and debate in the deliberation room is the “beauty” of the process.
Although previous seasons are not meant to be part of that process, it will feel that way for some teams, such as Miami. The Hurricanes in recent years have started strong but dropped a few games they were projected to win. It’s happening again this year.
“I’m just going to say it,” Rhoades said. “For Miami, it’s about consistency and their lack of consistency. We just need to see more consistency out of Miami headed down the stretch.”
By comparison, the committee was more conservative with Oregon, which placed ninth. The Ducks still lack a resume-popping win and lost at home by 10 points to Indiana. The reigning Big Ten champions thought they had an impressive victory on the road at Penn State in double overtime in front of a whiteout crowd, but that win has been diluted with each passing week.
Rhoades consistently said the committee relied on the coaches in the room using what they saw on tape when comparing teams. The data and metrics is often how the selection committee defends its picks, but gut feelings are frequently in the mix, too.
Arguing that Ohio State deserved the top spot over Indiana because the Buckeyes played better on the offensive line is odd to some given that Indiana has the better win (Oregon) and the same record.
That line of defense from Rhoades could add intrique to future rankings. If the selection committee is devoted to the film and the vibe that it provides for a certain team, there could be a shake-up in the rankings on conference championship weekend that will ruffle some feathers.
For now, the committee has established what it is looking for from teams over the next month to prove they are one of the 12 programs that belong in the postseason bracket. The updated criteria sets a good precedent, but how much the committee values it remains a mystery.
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